The NBA regular season is nearly done, with tensions high as teams jockey for the final few spots in this year’s playoffs.
While the top spots in both conferences seem secure — the Oklahoma City Thunder have clinched the top spot in the West, and the Cleveland Cavaliers have a 4.5-game edge in the East as the season winds down — there is drama guaranteed further down the standings.
In the East, teams like the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat are hoping to avoid a collapse to hold off the Toronto Raptors for the final play-in round berths. Over in the West, the Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, and Minnesota Timberwolves are in a four-horse race to avoid the play-in round entirely by finishing in the top six.
Here is the current NBA playoff picture, including magic numbers, standings, and predictions.
Latest NBA Standings
Here are the NBA standings as of the afternoon of Tuesday, March 25.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 57-14 (D)
2. Boston Celtics: 53-19 (P)
3. New York Knicks: 44-26
4. Indiana Pacers: 42-29
5. Milwaukee Bucks: 40-31
6. Detroit Pistons: 40-32
7. Atlanta Hawks: 35-36
8. Orlando Magic: 34-38
9. Chicago Bulls: 32-40
10. Miami Heat: 30-41
11. Toronto Raptors: 25-47
12. Brooklyn Nets: 23-49
13. Philadelphia 76ers: 23-49
14. Charlotte Hornets: 18-53
15. Washington Wizards: 15-56
Western Conference
1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 59-12 *
2. Houston Rockets: 46-26
3. Denver Nuggets: 45-28
4. Los Angeles Lakers: 43-28
5. Memphis Grizzlies: 43-28
6. Golden State Warriors: 41-30
7. Los Angeles Clippers: 40-31
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: 41-32
9. Sacramento Kings: 35-36
10. Phoenix Suns: 35-37
11. Dallas Mavericks: 35-37
12. Portland Trail Blazers: 32-40
13. San Antonio Spurs: 31-39
14. New Orleans Pelicans: 20-53 (e)
15. Utah Jazz: 16-56 (e)
* Clinched conference; (e) – eliminated; (D) clinched division; (P) – clinched playoff spot
Play-In Teams: NBA playoff race
The NBA playoff structure allows 20 total teams into the postseason (10 from each conference). The top six teams in the regular season qualify directly for the first round, while those finishing between seventh and 10th place participate in the play-in round. Here is the play-in outlook with teams’ total games back of first.
Eastern Conference
Based on the current standings, any team from the third-place New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers down to 13th could still mathematically end up in the play-in round.
3. New York Knicks: 12.5 games back
4. Indiana Pacers: 15 GB
5. Milwaukee Bucks: 17 GB
6. Detroit Pistons: 17.5 GB
7. Atlanta Hawks: 22 GB
8. Orlando Magic: 23.5 GB
9. Chicago Bulls: 25.5 GB
10. Miami Heat: 27 GB
11. Toronto Raptors: 32.5 GB
12. Brooklyn Nets: 34.5 GB
13. Philadelphia 76ers: 34.5 GB
Western Conference
The Western Conference is slightly less settled. The Oklahoma City Thunder have clinched the conference regular-season title, but the only other teams that are guaranteed not to see the playoff round are the New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz, which have both been eliminated.
2. Houston Rockets: 13.5 games back
3. Denver Nuggets: 15 GB
4. Los Angeles Lakers: 16 GB
5. Memphis Grizzlies: 16 GB
6. Golden State Warriors: 18 GB
7. Los Angeles Clippers: 19 GB
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: 19 GB
9. Sacramento Kings: 24 GB
10. Phoenix Suns: 24.5 GB
11. Dallas Mavericks: 24.5 GB
12. Portland Trail Blazers: 27.5 GB
13. San Antonio Spurs: 27.5 GB
NBA playoff scenarios: Latest Magic Numbers
Eastern Conference
In the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics have clinched a spot in the first round of the playoffs. Four teams — the New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Detroit Pistons — are assured of a place in the play-in round at the least.
Here are the magic numbers for those four teams to guarantee themselves entry into the first round:
3. New York Knicks: 3 games away
4. Indiana Pacers: 5
5. Milwaukee Bucks: 7
6. Detroit Pistons: 7
The next four teams in the East still have a mathematical chance to climb into the top six and claim a first-round place. Below are their magic numbers to clinch a berth in the play-in round:
7. Atlanta Hawks: 1 game away
8. Orlando Magic: 2
9. Chicago Bulls: 3
10. Miami Heat: 5
The rest of the teams in the Eastern Conference cannot get into the first round, but three still have a shot at the play-in round. While the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards have no chance to join the postseason, there are three teams still in the hunt.
Below is each team’s magic number in terms of how many losses they can afford and still stay alive in the playoff chase as they do not control their destiny.
11. Toronto Raptors: 6 games away
12. Brooklyn Nets: 3
13. Philadelphia 76ers: 4
Western Conference
The only team to lock up a first-round spot is the Thunder, who have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets have sealed a place in the play-in round, but still have work to do to guarantee themselves a berth in the first round.
Here are their magic numbers to avoid the play-in round:
2. Houston Rockets: 6 games away
3. Denver Nuggets: 6
The next seven teams in the standings are all rather tightly bunched up, heightening the playoff race tension. Here are their magic numbers to clinch a play-in spot:
4. Los Angeles Lakers: 2 games away
5. Memphis Grizzlies: 2
6. Golden State Warriors: 5
7. Los Angeles Clippers: 4
8. Minnesota Timberwolves: 6
9. Sacramento Kings: 10
10. Phoenix Suns: 10
Finally, there are three teams outside the postseason at the moment who could still climb the ladder and get in. The New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz are mathematically eliminated, but this trio still has hope. Here are their magic numbers in terms of how many losses a team needs to lose a chance to qualify for the playoffs. These teams essentially do not control their destiny:
11. Dallas Mavericks: 10 games away
12. Portland Trail Blazers: 7
13. San Antonio Spurs: 9
Latest NBA bracket predictions
Bleacher Report: Current standings hold in East, Warriors into West play-in round
Joe Tansey doesn’t see any of the East’s playoff outsiders taking a postseason berth out of someone else’s hands. While he does predict a shuffle in the standings over these final few weeks of the regular season, Tansey sees Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, and Chicago going into the play-in.
In the West, the story is much the same. Tansey’s predictions see Denver inching ahead of Houston for the No. 2 seed, and the Clippers leapfrogging Golden State for the final guaranteed spot in the first round. That would send the Warriors into the play-in round, along with Minnesota, Sacramento, and Phoenix.
Basketball-Reference: Simulation sees few changes from current standings.
Basketball-Reference’s simulations see the East’s current top 10 all holding their positions, which would mean a play-in round that pits Chicago against Miami in the 9-vs-10 game, while Atlanta and Orlando will play in the 7-vs-8 game.
In the West, despite a razor-thin margin separating the Kings, Mavericks, and Suns, the simulation says Phoenix has a 64.8% chance of missing the playoffs entirely. The model also slightly favors Minnesota moving up to seventh, which would ensure a home game in the play-in round against the Clippers. Still, it figures to go down to the wire, with Golden State given just a 53.3% chance of securing the final spot in the first round.