People on the streets of Ecuador can rattle off the places they have encountered criminals: On the bus, at the park, on the sidewalk, in a cab, by the mall, next to a restaurant.
And, while finger-counting, they can just as easily list what they lost in the multiple robberies or hours long kidnappings they have experienced: A full month’s salary; a second, third or fifth cellphone; a wallet.
So many of them have become crime victims since violence erupted in their country four years ago that they are no longer shaken by their friends’ stories of burglaries, carjackings or other offenses. Still, their personal and collective losses will be a determining factor Sunday, when they head to the ballot box to decide if a fourth president in as many years can turn Ecuador around or if incumbent President Daniel Noboa, deserves more time in office.
“Nothing has improved since the violence broke out,” Briggitte Hurtado said on a recent evening when her fashion jewelry stall and others on the boardwalk in the port city of Guayaquil had no customers.
“People used to go out more, and there was more activity on this area. I still don’t know who to vote for.”
Hurtado, 23, said she remains skeptical of Noboa because of her experiences since he became president in November 2023. She was robbed twice leaving work last year, but even worse, she said, was being driven around the city in a cab for four hours with her boyfriend until the driver and an associate managed to withdraw $800 from his account.
The spike in violence across the South American country is tied to the trafficking of cocaine produced in neighboring Colombia and Peru. Mexican, Colombian and Balkan cartels have set down roots in Ecuador and operate with assistance from local criminal gangs.
Sunday’s ballot features 16 candidates, including Noboa and leftist lawyer Luisa González, whom he defeated in the runoff of a snap election triggered by the decision of then-President Guillermo Lasso to dissolve the National Assembly and shorten his own mandate as a result. Noboa and González had only served short stints as lawmakers before launching their 2023 presidential campaigns.
Noboa and González, a mentee of former President Rafael Correa, are the frontrunners.
To win outright Sunday, a candidate needs 50% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the closest opponent. If needed, a runoff election would take place on April 13.
“People start thinking ‘How’s Noboa?’ But they immediately ask, ‘Do I want to return to Correismo or not?’” Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin American relations at the Council on Foreign Relations, said referring to the free-spending socially conservative movement labeled after Correa who governed Ecuador from 2007 through 2017, grew increasingly authoritarian in the latter years of his presidency and was sentenced to prison in absentia in 2020 in a corruption scandal.
“That to me is the biggest thing playing in Noboa’s favor right now, and obviously, he’s extremely lucky that’s the way people assess politics because I do think people are voting a bit less for him than against Correismo still.”
González, 47, held various government jobs during Correa’s presidency and was a lawmaker until May 2023. She was unknown to most voters until his party picked her as its presidential candidate that year.
Noboa, 37, is an heir to a fortune built on the banana trade. His political career began in 2021, when he won a seat in the National Assembly and chaired its Economic Development Commission. He opened an event organizing company when he was 18 and then joined his father’s Noboa Corp., where he held management positions in the shipping, logistics and commercial areas.
Under his presidency, the homicide rate dropped from 8,237, or 46.18 per 100,000 people, in 2023 to 6,964, or 38.76 per 100,000 people, last year. Still, it remained far higher than the 1,188 homicides, or 6.85 per 100,000 people, in 2019.
Kidnappings increased from 1,643 cases in 2023 to 1,761 through November 2024.
But while Noboa has delivered with the type of no-holds-barred crimefighting that some voters find appealing, he has also tested the limits of laws and norms of governing.
The country has been under a state of emergency since he authorized it in January 2024 in order to mobilize the military in certain places, including prisons, where organized crime has taken hold. To the shock and bewilderment of world leaders, Noboa also authorized last year’s police raid on Mexico’s embassy in the capital, Quito, to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a convicted criminal and fugitive who had been living there for months.
Further, he entrusted presidential powers earlier this year to a government official, not elected Vice President Verónica Abad, while he campaigned. Both began feuding before taking office.
The origins of the dispute are unknown, but shortly after becoming president, Noboa dispatched Abad to serve as ambassador to Israel, effectively isolating her from his administration. She has described her monthslong posting as “forced exile.”
Voting in Ecuador is mandatory. On Thursday, thousands of inmates who await sentencing cast ballots at voting centers set up in more than 40 prisons
Despite the multiple options from which to choose a president, some voters in Guayaquil, the epicenter of Ecuador’s violence, prefer to cast blank votes to express their discontent.
Resident Dario Castro plans to do that Sunday. Last year, he was robbed twice while riding the bus and his brother was kidnapped. He now only sees two radical options to end the crisis.
“Either you make a pact with the mafia, or you attack it with everything you have, otherwise the people will be left unprotected,” Castro, 46, said.