Bryce Harper and Juan Soto shared an outfield for one year, in 2018, before Harper fulfilled a destiny foresaw when he was just a teenager and signed the largest free-agent contract in baseball history.
Soto, still just a teenager, watched. And learned.
Though not as ballyhooed as Harper, who graced Sports Illustrated’s cover when he was 16 years old, Soto’s comparisons with him were striking. Soto also made his major league debut at 19 for the Washington Nationals, was an instant impact player, soon drew comparisons to the likes of Ted Williams and, almost as soon as he arrived, started the countdown clock.
To the point he’d reach six years in the major leagues – and could offer his services to the highest bidder.
That process culminated Sunday night, when Soto and the New York Mets agreed to a staggering 15-year, $765 million contract that makes Soto the highest-paid athlete in sports history.
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Yes, you read that right: $51 million a year, a byproduct of the bottomless wealth hedge fund king Steve Cohen brings to his ownership of the Mets. Boundless wealth has changed the top of the market in Major League Baseball, with Cohen providing an East Coast fusillade to answer the Los Angeles Dodgers’ wealth management warriors out west.
It is tempting, in the wake of Soto’s earth-shattering deal coming one year after two-way unicorn Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million Dodgers contract, to gently tug the pearls and ponder this much:
When will it end?
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Consider this: In February 2019, at a time when something resembling or embodying collusion corroded the free-agent market, Harper, 26, set a free-agent record by signing a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadephia Phillies.
Less than six years later, Soto doubled that.
He also doubled the nine-year, $360 million pact Aaron Judge inked when he re-signed with the Yankees following his 2022 MVP season. Then came Ohtani’s heavily-deferred deal, valued at $46 million by the players’ association since he’s receiving just $2 million up front and the rest not until the next couple decades.
Soto smashed that by any metric: Average annual value ($51 million), total value ($765 million), signing bonus ($75 million), deferrals (zip, zero, nada).
If you’re a fan of Pittsburgh or Cleveland or Sacramento, or even upper middle class clubs in Texas or Atlanta, this is probably a little scary. Individuals with Cohen’s wealth can collect boutique ballplayers like they’re rare pieces of art.
The Soto saga makes one of the more epic Onion headlines seem realistic – only this time, it’s the Mets collecting literally every player in the major leagues instead of the Yankees.
But this is where we pump the brakes.
Know this: Harper and Soto and Judge and Ohtani, at the times they hit the market, are truly 1 of 1. After that 2018 season, Harper and Manny Machado – who signed a $300 million deal with San Diego that winter – became the first players to hit free agency at 26 years old since Alex Rodriguez in 2000.
Ah, you remember A-Rod? His 10-year, $252 million deal signed with the Rangers also doubled the previous high for a free agent. Certainly, the cost of poker was going up – but the floodgates did not open.
In fact, the next player to sign a deal of more than $200 million back then was… A-Rod, when he opted out of his original deal and re-upped with the New York Yankees for $275 million.
Now along comes Soto, who was traded from Washington when he declined a 15-year, $440 million deal in 2022.
Turns out betting on himself was a pretty good wager.
Yet Soto was also the first 26-year-old superstar since Harper and Machado to hit free agency. And he’s arguably the most attractive option – with a .953 career OPS, a 41-home run season in his platform campaign, a pretty clean health history.
So who’s next? Well, with young players often opting for long-term financial security, there may not be such a generational free agent for the foreseeable future.
Ronald Acuña Jr. would have hit the free agent market as a 26-year-old this winter – had he not signed an eight-year, $100 million extension early in his career that could tie him to Atlanta until 2028.
Jackson Chourio made his major league debut just 18 days after his 20th birthday this year, showed all the signs of being a five-tool superstar for the Milwaukee Brewers – yet has already signed an eight-year, $82 million deal that could bind him to Milwaukee through 2033, making him a free agent at 30.
Bobby Witt Jr.? The transcendent Kansas City shortstop could have been a free agent at 27 – but signed an 11-year, $288 million deal. He can opt out starting in 2031 but will be 31 then.
No, Soto is special – not just in talent but in confidence, which oozes with every plate appearance and shows up at the most incredible times – such as his pennant-winning home run in this year’s American League Championship Series.
He was justly rewarded, the bauble that Cohen – the man who can buy anything – simply had to have.
Records are set simply to be broken, and someday, Soto’s salary standard will be smashed, as well, perhaps when some private equity kingpin who doesn’t even own a team yet has eyes for an irresistible talent currently toiling as a kid in the Dominican or on the 9-year-old travel-ball circuit stateside.
But Cohen can lock up the deepest corners of his vault for now. Sure, Harper and Judge and Ohtani and Soto are like so many nesting dolls, the next one consuming the previous.
But they are rare.
Certainly, the highest end of the major league free-agent market has been reset. It might be a while before we stumble upon the next guy who can reach those heights.
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DODGERS WIN WORLD SERIES: Celebrate with this commemorative coffee table book!