ATLANTA — In this era of Major League Baseball’s expanded playoff field, one concept rings even truer: If you’re over .500, you’ve got a chance.
Yet in the National League, nine teams can make that claim, more than double the four American League squads taking that distinction into the symbolic start of the second half.
The next two-plus months will shake things out, and with the division leads frontrunners Philadelphia (a half-game), Chicago (one game) and Los Angeles (5 ½ games) hold, nothing’s guaranteed.
“It’s a spicy division this year, that’s for sure,” says Milwaukee Brewers closer Trevor Megill of the NL Central, where his club lurks a game behind the Cubs. “The Cubs have a fantastic product out on the field this year and so do some other teams in our division.
“It’s going to come down to that last game.”
Slim as some margins are, we’ll give those leaders a pass and break down the half-dozen clubs aiming to run them down – or at least fight off the others for one of three wild-card spots:
Milwaukee Brewers: Grit and grind
Standing: 56-40, one game behind Chicago in NL Central, four-game lead for wild card spot.
What’s their deal?: They’ve once again outkicked expectations, with manager Pat Murphy guiding a wild mix of youth and veterans and All-Star pitcher Freddy Peralta helming a rotation that has unleashed touted rookie Jacob Misiorowski for five starts – with the baseball world suddenly captivated by what may come next.
Before the trade deadline: Nine of 12 games against playoff contenders Seattle, the Los Angeles Dodgers and, from July 28-30, the first-place Cubs.
Why the Brewers?: “The way the Brewers run themselves and the research they do on people, personalities – that goes into a lot of what we’re seeing right now. Power of friendship, right? We’ve got a college-minded coach at the helm and I think a lot of our guys are just that gritty, tough, and we go and get after it. I think that’s our biggest strength: A lot of guys that like each other and a lot of guys willing to put their body on the line every night.” – Megill
New York Mets: Help has arrived
Standing: 55-42, half-game behind Philadelphia in NL East, 2 ½-game lead for wild card spot.
What’s their deal?: An encouraging July got even brighter when injured pitchers Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga made their returns in their final series of the first half, with Senga pitching four scoreless innings at Kansas City. Juan Soto has shaken the new-team blues, with 12 homers and a .312/.450/.642 line in his last 35 games after going .229/.367/.430 in his first 62.
Before the trade deadline: Nine of 12 games against NL contenders Cincinnati, San Francisco and San Diego.
Why the Mets?: “We’ve got talent, we’ve got grit, we’ve got chemistry – those are all things you need to win ballgames. We’ve shown some obviously really great moments of consistency. But we haven’t been perfect. We’ve had some injuries, but we’re getting a ton of guys back. When you combine talent and attention to detail and grit, it makes for a winning ballclub.” – Pete Alonso
San Diego Padres: A road hurdle ahead
Standing: 52-44, 5 ½ games behind Los Angeles in NL West, half-game lead for wild card spot.
What’s their deal?: Injuries have slowed them much of the year, with sophomore Jackson Merrill struggling after a pair of IL trips, pitcher Yu Darvish making his season debut just before the All-Star break and Michael King out until August with shoulder irritation. Manny Machado is playing like an MVP. The bullpen produced three All-Stars.
Before the trade deadline: A 10-game road trip to Washington, Miami and St. Louis, followed by a three-game showdown against the Mets.
Why the Padres?: “We have the confidence and we’re going to have a good second half. We’re motivated to make the playoffs.” – Robert Suárez
San Francisco Giants: Time to get offensive
Standing: 52-45, six games behind Los Angeles in NL West, half-game out of wild card spot.
What’s their deal?: It’s torture all over again, as the pitching staff’s 3.50 ERA ranks third in the majors but batters rank 26th with a .678 OPS, stirring memories of their 2010 champions’ knack for winning close games. Rafael Devers has two homers and a .656 OPS in 25 games as a Giant, and along with Willy Adames must adjust from hitter-friendly climes to Oracle Park’s batter-killing conditions, though both will benefit from Matt Chapman’s return.
Before the trade deadline: A six-game trip to Toronto and Atlanta and three at home against Pittsburgh.
Why the Giants?: “We’re getting Willy going, we got Chappy back, and if we can get Raffy going as well, that’s great. Once we get our hitters going, we’re going to be pretty hot. We play the most one-run games in baseball and I think that sets us up for success in the playoffs. There’s a lot of close games. Our pitchers and our hitters are comfortable in those situations.” – Robbie Ray
St. Louis Cardinals: Might as well win the whole thing
Standing: 51-46, 6 ½ games behind Chicago in NL Central, 1 ½ games out of wild card spot.
What’s their deal?: Written off for 2025 after a much-ballyhooed franchise “reset” and a winter spent failing to trade Nolan Arenado, the Cardinals that remained comprised a pretty good squad. Sonny Gray has pitched like an ace, Brendan Donovan – a 3-WAR player in the first half – has led their band of versatile position player pieces and DH Ivan Herrera has returned from injury after posting a .924 OPS in 43 games.
Before the trade deadline: A six-game trip to Colorado and Arizona followed by a big four-game set at home against San Diego. Loser sells to the winner?
Why the Cardinals?: “I think it’s a group that’s not afraid of anything. People learning how to go about their business in the big leagues and learning about who they are and that’s what makes us scary. We just did all the things we had harped on in spring training: Taking care of the baseball, having quality at-bats, sticking to a team approach while also sticking to our individual approaches. I think our expectations were completely different than the ones set on us.” – Donovan
Cincinnati Reds: Youth movement, veteran guide
Standing: 50-47, 7 ½ games behind Chicago in NL Central, 2 ½ games out of wild card berth.
What’s their deal?: The rotation ranks sixth in the NL with a 3.88 ERA but has had injury setbacks. All-Star Elly De La Cruz racked up 3.6 WAR while hitting 18 homers with 25 steals. Emilio Pagan solidified the closer role, posting 20 saves by the break. Manager Terry Francona just notched his 2,000th career win.
Before the trade deadline: A six-game trip to the Mets and Nationals, followed by three with Tampa Bay.
Why the Reds?: “We’re a young team. I think we’re getting closer to finding our true identity. I truly believe we have a good young core and have a good set of veterans to help the younger players. And our manager. I think that was a really good move for us. Brings in that calmness with firmness. I think we’re going to continue to work, continue to show up and the results will show.” – Abbott