The Home Run Derby is one of baseball’s most beloved traditions. The opportunity to see raw power on the biggest stage has long captivated fans. The recent changes to the tournament have been well-received as well. Changing the rules to be a timed tournament adds a sense of urgency and tension to what was already an enthralling event.
With the new format, endurance has become a pivotal part of the derby, giving younger competitors a huge advantage. That’s likely a big reason why, prior to Teoscar Hernandez winning a year ago, no competitor over the age of 26 had won since the format changed.
Those are the factors you have to keep in mind when determining a winner this year. You’ve got to look for youth, stamina, and raw power.
Here is every participant this year ranked by their odds of winning the Home Run Derby. All odds via BetMGM.
Power Ranking 2025 Home Run Derby participants
Favorites
1. Cal Raleigh, SEA (+280)
It’s obvious that the guy with the most home runs in baseball is going to be a favorite in an event about hitting home runs. But I wouldn’t be so sure that the Big Dumper is going to win it all. He’s a little old for his first tournament, and considering Raleigh has historically been a better hitter when batting right-handed, Truist Park has always been a pretty middling home run park for righties, favoring hitters from the left side.
Maybe Raleigh will participate as a lefty. After all, 22 of his 38 home runs have come as a lefty. However, that’s just because there are more right-handed pitchers in baseball than southpaws. He’s just had more opportunity to hit homers from the left side than the right.
Raleigh is slashing .229/.375/.543 as a lefty batter in 2025. He’s slashing .333/.382/.853 as a righty. If he wants to put his best foot forward, he’ll hit right-handed, which could hurt his chances.
Dark Horses
2. Oneil Cruz, PIT (+350)
3. James Wood, WSH (+400)
These two should be the favorites. They are both young enough to dominate in a battle of stamina and both are near the top of the exit velocity leaderboards this season. In fact, no one has hit a ball harder than Cruz’s 122.9 mph, per Baseball Savant. Wood ranks fifth on that list. Cruz also ranks first in average exit velocity. He should be the favorite.
These two should be the frontrunners and are likely the best bang for your buck if you’re looking to gamble on the derby.
Underdogs
T-4. Byron Buxton, MIN (+900)
T-4. Brent Rooker, ATH (+900)
T-4. Matt Olson, ATL (+900)
While none of these participants is very young, they all have immense power. These guys could do some damage in the earlier rounds, but a decline should be expected as the tournament progresses. It would be a shock if any of these three win.
Longshots
7. Junior Caminero, TB (+1000)
8. Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY (+1500)
Caminero is not getting nearly the love he deserves. Caminero’s max exit velocity of 116.5 ranks 13th in Major League Baseball. The only two participants with better max exit velos are Wood and Cruz. Yet somehow they have much better odds than he does. Yes, Caminero is a right-handed hitter, which is a detriment in comparison to lefties Wood and Cruz, but if anyone is going to put up a fight against those two titans, it’s going to be Caminero.