AUGUSTA, Ga. – As the Masters gets underway, here are sports columnist Dan Wolken’s five bold predictions for how this week will turn out.
This year will produce the lowest (real) winning score since 2015
Putting aside Dustin Johnson’s 20-under par during the COVID Masters played in November 2020 when course conditions were completely different than in the spring, nobody has come close over the past decade to Jordan Spieth’s 18-under in 2015. The winner this year will need to be around that neighborhood because of the ideal scoring conditions in store this weekend. In recent years, Augusta National has been impacted by severe weather on at least one or two days including last year when ridiculous 30-40 mph winds swept through Thursday and Friday. But this year, there’s really no wind in the forecast and only a small chance of rain Friday, which would do nothing but soften the course a bit. Combined with the rain the course received Monday, it’s going to be about 70 degrees and sunny every day with calm conditions. It should be a birdie assault on Augusta.
The winner of the Masters will eagle No. 13 on Sunday
Lengthening the 13th hole to 545 yards with the new back tee box seems to have had a big impact on scoring. There were just 108 birdies for the entire tournament each of the past two years since the change and only 12 combined eagles on the hole known as “Azalea.” Compare that to, say, 2019 when there were 158 birdies and 17 eagles. Increasing the distance from 510 yards has brought the average score up fractionally, from around 4.6 strokes most years to around 4.7 and change the past two. Of course, weather plays a big factor so it’ll take several more years to see the true impact of making the hole 35 yards longer. But Fred Ridley, the tournament chairman, said Wednesday he believes more players are going for the green in two because drives that leak out to the right are not reaching the trees like they used to. “Our motivation was to create more excitement and have more players go for the green,” he said. With more players trying to eagle the hole but fewer actually doing it, it makes sense that someone is going to hit the right approach and create separation on the leaderboard at that key spot on the course. Why not this year?
Phil Mickelson will be in the mix Sunday
Lefty feels a little bit like a museum artifact these days, given that he’s 54 and hasn’t won an official tournament since the Charles Schwab Cup Championship on the senior tour in November 2021. But he does know his way around Augusta, as he proved two years ago by sneaking into a tie for second behind Jon Rahm with a final round 65. Interestingly, that was only Mickelson’s third top 10 since he last won the tournament in 2010. But what’s more important is that he seems to be in good form lately with a third and a sixth place in the past three LIV events. Winning the event is probably beyond his reach, but it’s not a shock to see an old guy on the leaderboard at the Masters simply due to knowing how to play the course. This feels like a good spot for the three-time champion to make one last big run at the title.
Rory McIlroy will lose the Masters in a playoff
At this point, the world’s No. 2-ranked player has lost majors in just about every heartbreaking way known to man, especially the past few years. Couldn’t make a birdie putt in the final round at St. Andrews. Couldn’t hold off Wyndham Clark at L.A. Country Club. Couldn’t close the deal against Bryson DeChambeau at Pinehurst. What’s the one thing he hasn’t done? Lose a major in a playoff. Before McIlroy wins his career Grand Slam at the Masters, he has to complete has Grand Slam of disappointments. You can say he already has his what-if moment at this course back in 2011 when he had the lead going into the back nine on Sunday before blowing up with a triple bogey on No. 10 and a four-putt on No. 12. But that was a long, long time ago and the current Rory cycle demands that he lose a major in a playoff before he starts winning them again. Those are the rules.
There will be a first-time Masters winner this year
Who beats McIlroy in the playoff? It will be someone crowned as a major champion for the first time. The highest-ranked player without a major is a fairly obvious pick: Ludvig Aberg, the 25-year-old Swede who finished second last year in his Masters debut. But Aberg hasn’t played that well lately, missing the cut in his two most recent events. Next on the list is Russell Henley. Russell who? He’s not a household name, but the native Georgian is playing the best golf of his life at 35 and ranked No. 10 in the world after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month. After that comes Viktor Hovland, who would admit that his swing is a mess. Then Maverick McNealy, who has never played the Masters or finished better than 23rd in a major. Then it’s Tommy Fleetwood, who can’t seem to put it all together when it counts. Next comes Sepp Straka, who is too streaky to pick. Then we get to Patrick Cantlay, who is probably due to win a major and has played well this year. So that’s the pick. It’s Cantlay.