Sudan’s army says it has wrested control of the capital Khartoum from a feared militia accused of genocide after ousting it from the Presidential Palace and the city’s airport it had held since the start of a brutal two-year conflict.
But while the capture of Khartoum marks an important moment in the conflict, with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) deeply embedded elsewhere in Sudan and attempting to form a parallel government, analysts warn there is little likelihood of a swift resolution to the war.
Since April 2023, two of Sudan’s most powerful generals – Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and former ally Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – have engaged in a bloody feud over control of the country which is split between their strongholds.
The ruthless power struggle, which was essentially triggered by disagreements on how to restore civilian rule after the fall of former President Omar al-Bashir and a subsequent military coup, has left more than 28,000 people dead and 11 million homeless in what the United Nations has described as the world’s “most devastating humanitarian and displacement crisis.”
The military claims control of swaths of Sudan but almost all of Darfur, a region roughly the size of France, is held by the RSF, which also retains footholds in the neighboring states of West Kordofan and North Kordofan, according to a map released by the SAF.
“Khartoum is free,” declared SAF leader Burhan, who arrived at Khartoum’s airport by plane later Wednesday, in what the army said was the first flight received by the airport since the start of the war.
Yasser al-Atta, a deputy commander of the SAF told troops on Tuesday that the “decisive battle” to “eliminate the (RSF’s) rebellion” was now “in its final phase.”
Where’s the next battlefield?
The RSF grew out of the notorious Janjaweed militia that was accused of genocide against the non-Arab population in Darfur in the early 2000s.
In January, the United States accused the RSF of committing another genocide following what it said was the systematic murder of “men and boys – even infants – on an ethnic basis.” The RSF denounced the declaration as “inaccurate.”
“It (Darfur) is the RSF stronghold where they started as the Janjaweed and where they fought and continue to fight for land grabbing from the African indigenous population who own the land,” Al-Karib said.
But he added the war is far from over.
“The journey is still long because our goal is to cleanse the entire country.”
Civilians paying the price
Ridding the country of the RSF has come at a great cost for the Sudanese people who are often caught in the crossfire.
Civilians in North Darfur are the latest casualties of the conflict.
On Monday, many people were burned beyond recognition when bombs rained on a busy market in Tora, a rebel-run village in North Darfur, according to multiple local reports, as Sudan’s military targeted RSF enclaves.
Volker Türk, a UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said in a statement he was “deeply shocked” by the reports, saying that 13 of those victims were from a single family.
“Civilian objects remain an all-too-frequent target,” he added.
“We are the ones protecting civilians and preserving their lives and property, unlike the militia, which has continued since the outbreak of this war to bombard civilians with drones, artillery, and missiles,” he said.
Is Sudan headed for a reset or division?
The SAF’s military successes in Khartoum could further fracture Sudan or make the RSF “more amenable to being pushed into talks” with its rival, political analyst Kholood Khair said.
“This war has added an ugly ethnic taint to the political and economic conflicts that will be difficult to resolve even with a national level agreement,” she added.
In February, the RSF began an audacious move to create a parallel government in the areas under its control, signing a charter with political and smaller armed groups allied to it that seek the “establishment of a secular and democratic state based on freedom, equality, and justice.”
The RSF’s proposed state is “a quest for legitimacy,” according to Khair, who anticipates that the militia could now “seek to capture El Fasher” — the last major town in Darfur yet to be under its control.
Sudanese human rights lawyer Mutasim Ali believes that the RSF lacks the capacity to create a parallel state as it has been cut down to size by the SAF.
For activist Al-Karib, the RSF’s move to form a separate government is “a pressure card on (the) SAF to engage with them and to legitimize themselves as a political force in case of any political talks.”
As of today, the prospects for negotiations that could potentially usher in a coalition government between the SAF and RSF appear to be a long shot.
The SAF’s deputy commander Al-Atta told troops this week: “There will be no retreat or stop until the militia and its collaborating agents are eradicated from the lives of the Sudanese.”
With the military presumed to have the upper hand, it will likely press on, Ali said.