There were likely as many groans as laughs across Canada when comedian Mike Myers hovered over the hockey boards in a campaign ad with Prime Minister Mark Carney, his “elbows up” battle cry on display as the country of his birth takes on the country he calls home.
The Liberal Party ad played up many trite but true Canadian stereotypes and jokes that are not going to cut it during this sobering election campaign.
US President Donald Trump will obviously not be on the ballot in Canada – but how each candidate proposes to deal with him is. “Standing strong,” “elbows up,” these are mantras all Canadian politicians have adopted, but how they deal with Canadians’ expectations and an economy facing the threat of a trade war with its largest trading partner is the contest that will matter.
Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada and wreck its economy with tariffs, mockingly referring to the US’ northern neighbor as “the 51st state.”
Carney describes the danger posed by Trump as existential, saying at his campaign kickoff that the US president wants to “break us so America can own us.”
“I’m asking Canadians for a strong, positive mandate to deal with President Trump and to build a new Canadian economy that works for everyone because I know we need change, big change, positive change,” added Carney Sunday, as he began a five-week campaign that will end with a national vote on April 28.
His Conservative Party challenger, Pierre Poilievre, sounds near identical in his tone.
“I will insist the president recognize the independence and sovereignty of Canada, I will insist that he stop tariffing our nation, and at the same time I will strengthen our country so that we can be capable of standing on our own two feet and standing up to the Americans where and when necessary,” said Poilievre in his first campaign speech Sunday.
Poilievre and Carney’s parties are virtually tied heading into this campaign and how they calibrate their response to Trump for voters, many of whom are equally enraged and terrified by the US leader’s threats, will likely decide this election.
“We are over the shock of that betrayal, and it is a betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons,” Carney has repeatedly said in speeches without, so far, leveling with Canadians about what those lessons should be.
Canada’s economy is not in fighting shape. The “elbows up” slogan might get voters’ hearts racing, but Canadians need to roll up their sleeves if they’re to survive America’s economic blows.
For years economists have sounded the alarm over Canada’s low productivity, a key weakness that makes it even more vulnerable during a trade war.
Carolyn Rogers, a senior deputy governor at the Bank of Canada called it a “break the glass” emergency last year, adding that in the past four decades, Canadian productivity has fallen significantly, especially when compared to the United States.
“Labour productivity measures how much an economy produces per hour of work. Increasing productivity means finding ways for people to create more value during the time they’re at work,” she wrote, adding that it’s a way inoculate the economy against challenges like inflation.
A TD Economics report in May 2024 put it succinctly, observing that Canada’s economy has struggled to find ways to boost the productivity of workers.
Even for a former central banker like Carney, or a resource-booster like Poilievre, there is no quick fix. Canadians are in danger of a significant decline in their standard of living if they do not begin to mitigate the impact of a “decoupling” from the US.
The United Kingdom and Europe are going through a similar reckoning, and the leaders of Britain, France, and Germany have, if tentatively, opened a dialogue with their citizens making it clear that a detachment from the US may mean cuts to social programs, increased deficit financing or both.
It is unlikely that language will find its way into Canadian stump speeches over the next several weeks, but it ought to.
In just 10 days as prime minister, Carney has announced tax cuts to income, energy, and new homes. And increased spending for social programs like national dental care.
Poilievre has promised his own “bold and beautiful” tax cuts along with new spending on the military and funding new programs like subsidizing apprenticeships for workers in the trades.
“We will stare down this unprovoked threat with steely resolve because, be assured, Canadians are tough, we are hardy and we stand up for ourselves,” said Poilievre at a campaign stop on Sunday evening.
Even his attacks on the Liberal Party, accusing it of putting Canadians “under the thumb of the Americans,” is devoid of any prescription for fixing that.
Trump is a once in a lifetime foil for Canadian politicians, criticizing him and his policies is a campaign cudgel that is easy to land.
That may change on April 2, the day Trump has promised to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries, including Canada.
With the potential for mass layoffs within days of that announcement and a further plunge in the value of the Canadian dollar and stock market, party leaders will need to drop the slogans when they raise those elbows and articulate a path forward.