Cinderella, get ready to have a ball. Talking about you, Drake. You too, Yale.
Colorado State enters March Madness piping hot.
Looking for longshot upset potential? Then take Lipscomb.
Cinderella, get ready to have a ball. This is your moment.
This NCAA Tournament features four particularly strong No. 1 seeds, but I also spy some underdogs equipped to do damage.
Come the Final Four, expect a lot of chalk. In the meantime, I anticipate a delicious dose of chaos. There’s no shortage of Nos. 10, 11, 12 and even 13 seeds that can inflict pain.
I can’t propose an upset from the Nos. 15 or 16 seeds. Although not impossible in a tournament known for unpredictability, the top seeds are too strong this year. Also, I didn’t include any No. 9 seeds as Cinderellas. First-round triumphs by a No. 9 seed hardly qualify as upsets.
From the 10- through 14-seed line, here are my teams that offer top Cinderella potential:
(10) New Mexico
First-round opponent: (7) Marquette
The Lobos’ Donovan Dent stands out as one of the nation’s best point guards, regardless of conference. He scores as well as he distributes. New Mexico plays stingy defense, and it owns non-conference wins against tournament qualifiers UCLA and VCU. The Lobos are good enough to win multiple NCAA Tournament games.
(10) Utah State
First-round opponent: (7) UCLA
The Aggies are especially efficient offensively, and they average nine 3-pointers per game. Teams that can get hot from the perimeter offer enticing upset potential. Utah State’s non-conference win list includes Iowa and Saint Mary’s. Top player Ian Martinez scored 21 points in last year’s first-round takedown of TCU.
REGIONAL PREDICTIONS: East | West | Midwest | South
(11) Drake
First-round opponent: (6) Missouri
Drake will be a popular Cinderella in bracket pools, and trendy upsets too often don’t pan out. Still, I can’t resist a team that defends and rebounds as well as Drake, which beat tournament qualifier Vanderbilt. Four Drake starters, including star guard Bennett Stirtz, smoothly transitioned from Division II after previously playing for coach Ben McCollum at Northwest Missouri State. If Drake dictates the deliberate tempo it prefers, that could bother Missouri.
(11) VCU
First-round opponent: (6) Brigham Young
BYU’s slick-shooting offense meets VCU’s dogged defense in another 6-vs-11 matchup paring teams with contrasting styles. The Rams are no stranger to facing high-major programs. They beat Boston College and Miami. They’ve won 12 of their last 13 games. Coach Ryan Odom engineered the first upset by a No. 16 seed in March Madness history, when Maryland-Baltimore County stunned No. 1 Virginia in 2018.
(12) UC-San Diego
First-round opponent: (5) Michigan
Five years ago, the Tritons won 30 games in their final Division II season. They needed just a handful of years to take over the Big West. They average nearly 11 3s per game – that’s a recipe for an upset – and four starters average in double figures scoring. The committee considers UC-San Diego the best No. 12 seed. Duke is the only team with more victories than the Tritons’ 30.
(12) Colorado State
First-round opponent: (5) Memphis
If you like hot squads, you’ll love the Rams, winners of 10 straight. Most of those results came in convincing fashion. Colorado State went 10-7 against ‘Quad 1’ and ‘Quad 2’ opponents. Fifth-year senior Nique Clifford supplies efficient scoring and reliable rebounding. The Mountain West qualified four teams, so it says something that Colorado State won the conference tournament.
(13) Yale
First-round opponent: (4) Texas A&M
No need to question Yale’s basketball IQ, and the Bulldogs shouldn’t be intimidated after playing Purdue to a close game this season. Star guard John Poulakidas is back after scoring 28 points in last season’s first-round upset of Auburn. Yale shoots at a high clip from 3-point range, and the Bulldogs won’t shy away from Texas A&M’s physicality.
(14) Lipscomb
First-round opponent: (3) Iowa State
The 3-point shot remains college basketball’s great equalizer, and Lipscomb averages nearly 10 triples per game. Lipscomb also shoots free throws better than all but two teams in the bracket. Jacob Ognacevic has scored at least 20 points in eight of his past nine games. A Lipscomb upset would be the longest-shot on this list, but what’s March without a little madness?
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.