After a day where some teams strengthened or hurt their NCAA Tournament cases, Thursday presents another opportunity for those fighting to secure a spot in March Madness.
The NCAA Tournament picture could drastically shift by the end of the night as three of the last teams in and all teams in the first four out in the recent USA TODAY Sports Bracketology will be in action. Moves are already happening since Ohio State − once a projected First Four participant − suffered a dreadful loss to Iowa Wednesday, essentially opening a spot for a team on the outside.
Teams on the bubble of the USA TODAY Sports Bracketology are either trying to build upon their case after winning on Wednesday or starting their conference tournament journeys in hopes of keeping pace. Bid stealers could be happening soon, meaning every additional win is essential to ensure teams don’t get left out of the field. Here’s a tracker of bubble teams playing today and how those games will chance the NCAA Tournament outlook.
BRACKETOLOGY: Race for No. 1 seeds, bubble spots heats up
TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS: SEC | Big Ten | ACC | Big 12 | Big East
Indiana falls apart against Oregon
The late season surge by the Hoosiers may have gone to waste after a one-and-done appearance in the Big Ten tournament, losing to Oregon for the second time in 10 days. It was almost deja vu in how Indiana lost: The game was close until the Ducks went on a run it couldn’t match. Indiana made it a two-point game with seven minutes left but went cold after that, missing six consecutive shots and going on a five minute scoring drought while Oregon went on a 9-0 run that put the game out of reach.
Thanks to an impressive recent run, Indiana played itself into one of the last teams in the field, but the spot was far from secured, given the resume wasn’t great. It never suffered anything outside a Quad 1 loss, but a 4-12 mark in the category isn’t the look of a tournament team, and the No. 52 NET ranking was the worse among at-large teams. Even with a string of wins, Indiana needed more in Indianapolis. Instead Mike Woodson’s tenure likely will end without a March Madness bid.
Xavier misses out on second Quad 1 victory
Based on the first half, it looked like Xavier was going to continue its hot streak toward an NCAA Tournament spot. However, Marquette had a dazzling second half performance and overcame a double-digit deficit for a thrilling 89-87 win that really hurt Xavier’s tournament chances. The Musketeers were on fire and up by 14 points early in the second half, but Marquette woke up and was constantly hitting 3-pointers for multiple runs to make it a game. It was tied with three minutes to go but the Golden Eagles offense was relentless to pull off the comeback; it shot 61.3% in the final 20 minutes and the 38 points from Xavier’s Ryan Conwell weren’t enough.
Xavier entered the day with seven consecutive wins, but the reason why it didn’t make it out of the First Four area was because none of the victories helped the Quad 1 record. At 1-8 in the category, it desperately needed another one to help the resume. While it was a valiant effort against Marquette that proved the Musketeers are playing like a tournament team, the lack of notable wins is what’s killing its tournament chances. It’s a grim outlook for Xavier right now as it could be another team moving out of the field.
North Carolina survives, sets up pivotal rematch with Duke
It was far from pretty and often concerning, but North Carolina kept its tournament hopes alive in a necessary win over Wake Forest to advance to the ACC tournament semifinal. The Tar Heels fell in an early hole they eventually climbed out of, and the Demon Deacons never quit, even leading with six minutes left. However Wake Forest went cold and North Carolina capitalized by ending the game on a 14-3 run for the nine-point victory.
North Carolina doesn’t have any impressive wins this week, but thanks to some last four teams in losing, the Tar Heels are reaping the benefits and finding themselves in the field. Still, it’s hard to ignore the 1-11 Quad 1 record and a signature victory is needed to end the doubt. Luckily one awaits the Tar Heels on Friday with the third matchup of the season against Duke, which they nearly beat on Saturday. What makes it even more compelling is Cooper Flagg likely won’t play after suffering an injury on Thursday. If North Carolina can capitalize and pull off the upset, it may be enough to make the tournament.
Texas nears NCAA Tournament spot with gritty win
A new team could be in the NCAA Tournament field after Texas won a double-overtime classic over rival Texas A&M in a contest the Longhorns needed to win. It was a slugfest that had several momentum swings in the last half hour of play, the difference being some clutch 3-point shooting from Texas in the second overtime to get its second win in two days. The Aggies shot a tough 3-for-16 from the field after regulation.
The Longhorns needed to make some noise in the SEC tournament in order to get out of the ‘first four out’ area, and they have done so with consecutive Quad 1 wins to improve their record in the category to 7-9. It’s still too early to determine, but Texas is on the right side of the bubble three days ahead of Selection Sunday. Next, it will face a national title contender in Tennessee on Friday. While the Longhorns have done well in Nashville, beating the Volunteers may just seal a bid.
Boise State beats San Diego State in bubble showdown
In the game with the biggest bubble implications on Thursday, Boise State beat San Diego State 62-52. The Broncos are headed to the Mountain West semifinals and the Aztecs are headed home with an uneasy feeling.
San Diego State was the one in front in the first half, but a dismal end to the game doomed it. The Aztecs didn’t make a field goal in the final nine minutes, missing their final nine shots as Boise State ended the game on a 13-3 run to win despite having a worse overall shooting day.
Neither team had a secure spot in the NCAA Tournament, but Boise State needed to win more since it was the first team out. A loss and the Broncos could’ve kissed their tournament hopes goodbye. The Broncos wouldn’t be denied, though, and are now in a very intriguing spot thanks to a third Quad 1 victory. While their chances are still alive, they’re still not in a secure spot. Boise State will face conference regular-season champion New Mexico on Friday in a game that could be the ultimate decider of its fate.
For San Diego State, it’s now susceptible to being jumped by teams picking up wins this week, and there is an actual possibility it misses out on the tournament. It finishes with an 8-8 Quad 1 and 2 record and a No. 49 NET ranking. A No. 11 seed not projected to be in the First Four gives it some cushion to fall a bit, but add in possible bid-stealers and there’s a chance the drop becomes catastrophic for the Aztecs. The verdict right now seems split on whether San Diego State will make it, and it will have to hold its breath waiting until Sunday.
Colorado State continues late surge
The newest addition to the bracket mix is trending in the right direction; Colorado State won its eighth straight game with a Mountain West tournament quarterfinal victory over Nevada. It was never a blowout − a one-point game at halftime − but the Rams didn’t have any trouble in a wire-to-wire win.
It wasn’t until earlier this week that Colorado State was placed in the ‘first four out,’ and it’s given the Rams hope the NCAA Tournament is possible. A Quad 2 victory isn’t going to move the Rams up much, but it was necessary. An at-large bid is technically still possible, but the conference crown may truly be the only thing that will get them in the tournament. Friday’s semifinal game will be a must-win, and likely the Mountain West championship game on Saturday will be, too … depending on other results from bubble teams.
Oklahoma loses heartbreaker, but shouldn’t worry
SEC … after dark?
It got wild past midnight in Nashville as Oklahoma’s late run to take an improbable lead in the final seconds was wiped away by Kentucky guard Otega Oweh’s game-winner with half a second left, stunning the Sooners and advancing the Wildcats to the SEC tournament quarterfinals. Oklahoma pulled off a 7-0 run in 28 seconds to jump ahead with six seconds to go before the last-second shot.
Porter Moser won’t be happy his team is headed home, but he should be feeling good about his team’s postseason chances. Luckily, the Sooners really benefitted from some bubble teams like Ohio State, Xavier and Indiana losing over the past two days. Recent wins − including Wednesday’s win over Georgia − separated Oklahoma from the rest of the pack and put it in a more comfortable position heading into Selection Sunday. Will Oklahoma be a No. 10 seed? Likely, but it’s surely in a much better place than having to play next Tuesday or Wednesday.