I haven’t formally outlined it, but in researching this year’s Hall of Fame ballot I find myself breaking the candidate pool into three distinct classes of electability.
The first group is the no-doubters, which Ichiro Suzuki now joins in his first year of eligibility. Ichiro was a unique talent whose impeccable bat control, blazing speed and outstanding throwing arm combined to make him one of the best players of his era. His lack of walks and .402 career slugging percentage led to a relatively modest 60 WAR … but the two batting titles, 10 Gold Gloves and an AL MVP award (not to mention his immense popularity) give him a good chance to be voted in unanimously.
The other holdovers from last year I believe should and will be elected to Cooperstown are Billy Wagner (in his final year on the ballot) and Carlos Beltrán. I’ve discussed their qualifications many times and have voted for them every year I’ve been able to.
The second category of players are borderline candidates I believe should be elected, even though I recognize other people feel they may fall short.
Returning candidates Andruw Jones, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are joined this year by CC Sabathia.
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A six-time All-Star and 2007 AL Cy Young winner, Sabathia had both a high peak and exceptional longevity as evidenced by his 251 wins and 3,093 strikeouts during a 19-year career. I didn’t necessarily feel like he was a slam-dunk Hall of Famer while he was playing, but his overall numbers speak very loudly.
The third category is a new one for me – and it’s probably the one that will generate the most debate. This group is comprised of players who admittedly don’t quite meet the established Hall of Fame standard, but still deserve to be part of the conversation.
I could just as easily left these players off my ballot and felt good about voting for a magnificent class of seven.
But with three spots still open, it doesn’t hurt to add more names to the discussion. I know my one vote this year won’t put any of them in the Hall. I’m simply showing my support for their candidacy ahead of the other lower-percentage players on the ballot.
Even if their chances of getting in are slim at the moment, there’s always a possibility that perspectives can change over time. We’ve seen players like Bert Blyleven, Tim Raines and most recently Larry Walker and Todd Helton start slowly, but gradually build momentum and eventually make it to Cooperstown.
So here’s why I’m including Félix Hernández, Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle on my 2025 ballot.
Admittedly, King Félix was one of my favorite players to watch. His genuine love for the game and for competing made it almost impossible not to root for him. He was incredibly consistent, posting 10 consecutive seasons with 30+ starts. And he was the unquestioned ace of the Mariners, starting 11 times on opening day.
Hernández was also one of the first players to make me realize there was more to being a great pitcher than surface stats. His AL Cy Young award in 2010 – when he beat out Sabathia – was a watershed moment for sabermetrics because he had “only” 13 wins (but led the majors with a 2.27 ERA in almost 250 innings).
The biggest drawback to Hernández’s candidacy is his relatively low career totals: 169 wins, 2,524 strikeouts, and perhaps most glaringly, zero playoff appearances. And his production fell off dramatically after age 30.
But still, he was most certainly one of the best pitchers of his time. During his decade-long peak from 2007-16, he accumulated 47.2 WAR – third over that span behind Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander.
He led the AL in fewest hits per nine innings three times, he won two ERA titles and pitched a perfect game against the Rays in 2012.
Sabathia had a better overall career and has a much better Hall of Fame resume than Hernández, but at their best, I’d rather have King Félix if I needed to win one game.
Because of the way starting pitchers are being used, it’s pretty obvious the historic standards we’ve used for decades are becoming increasingly more unrealistic as each year passes. As a result, they will becomee an endangered species in Cooperstown.
That’s why – with two open spots remaining on my ballot – I’m including Pettitte and Buehrle for the first time.
Both won over 200 games during their lengthy careers and were key members of World Series-winning teams. Their overall numbers are so very close, with Pettitte’s lengthy postseason resume (a record 44 playoff starts) and five championship rings balanced out by Burhrle’s edge in All-Star appearances and his Gold Glove defense.
Until this year, they’ve both been just below the line for me, partly because I’ve had one open spot on my ballot twice in the past four years and I couldn’t pick one over the other. But while looking into Hernández’s case for the Hall, I came across one startling stat.
Adjusted ERA (ERA+) is a number that takes ballpark factors into account and scales it so 100 is average. Over their entire careers, Hernández, Pettitte and Buehrle each finished with the exact same 117 ERA+ (just ahead of Sabathia’s 116). If it was so difficult before to choose between Pettitte and Buehrle, adding King Félix to the mix made it almost impossible. Each pitcher was outstanding in his own way – and with workhorse starters (Buehrle had 14 consecutive 200-inning seasons!) a thing of the past, perhaps it’s past time to give them their due.
My 2025 Hall of Fame ballot
Ichiro Suzuki
CC Sabathia
Billy Wagner
Carlos Beltrán
Félix Hernández
Andy Pettitte
Mark Buehrle
Andruw Jones
Jimmy Rollins
Chase Utley
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