Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings reflect the calm before the storm.
With No. 2 Ohio State set to host No. 5 Indiana, No. 19 Army meeting No. 6 Notre Dame and several other impactful games involving ranked teams in the Power Four, this Saturday’s schedule will help clarify what has been an uncertain and unsettled race for the 12-team field.
By this time next week, we should have a better picture of how things could play out in the Bowl Subdivision, especially in determining which teams will meet in conference championship games.
For now, the latest rankings are notable for the drop of two teams formerly in the top seven: No. 14 Brigham Young and No. 11 Tennessee. The Cougars fell eight spots after losing to Kansas, while the Volunteers dropped four after falling to No. 10 Georgia.
Both teams have the runway to climb back into the hypothetical playoff bracket, though Tennessee’s path will likely travel the at-large route. BYU is still tied for the first place in the Big 12 and can book a trip to the championship game with a win on Saturday against No. 21 Arizona State.
This pair along with Georgia and the Big Ten lead the winners and losers from Tuesday night:
Winners
Georgia
The Bulldogs are back in the hypothetical bracket after beating the Volunteers and certain to stay there with wins against Massachusetts and Georgia Tech. In the end, missing the SEC championship game and avoiding the chance at a third loss will help Georgia stay in the field. Saturday’s win reinforced Georgia’s strongest qualities as a playoff contender: strong wins, strong losses and the toughest schedule of any Power Four team still in the mix. The Bulldogs have wins against Tennessee, No. 3 Texas and No. 17 Clemson.
Big Ten
Look at these rankings as a snapshot of this moment: While at least one of these four teams will drop out after Saturday, to have four of the top five teams shows that not even the SEC can match the top quarter of the Big Ten. The rankings are again led by unbeaten Oregon, which has already clinched a spot in the conference championship game. There’s also No. 4 Penn State, which clung to a spot ahead of the Hoosiers after adding a ranked win against No. 25 Illinois. The Nittany Lions have a chance to add another solid but unspectacular win on Saturday against Minnesota.
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Losers
Brigham Young
To be behind No. 12 Boise State at this point seems to ignore wins against No. 13 SMU and Kansas State, which top the Broncos’ wins against No. 24 UNLV and Washington State. The Broncos do have a very good loss to Oregon, though, and good losses have carried major weight with the committee through the playoff era. There’s clearly a focus on the Cougars’ close wins against Utah and Oklahoma State along with only three victories against teams currently holding a winning record. BYU also hasn’t always aced the eye test, which matters.
But the current pecking order won’t last if BYU wins the Big 12, which matters when you begin to think of which conference winner will get the opening-round bye alongside the SEC, Big Ten and ACC. The Cougars have the chance to add ranked wins against the Sun Devils and No. 16 Colorado while the Broncos wrap up with Wyoming, Oregon State and either Colorado State or a rematch with UNLV. Winning out would eventually push BYU back in front. In fact, the Cougars could move ahead of Boise next week with a win against Arizona State.
Tennessee
To be fifth among SEC teams at this moment speaks to the diminished odds the Volunteers have of earning an at-large bid. Tennessee isn’t catching up with No. 7 Alabama despite beating the Crimson Tide. Nor are the Volunteers every going to get ahead of Georgia due to Saturday’s loss. They are also going to have a hard time getting back ahead of No. 9 Mississippi because of the common-opponent result with the Bulldogs. Based on Tuesday’s ranking, what Tennessee needs is simple: No. 3 Texas to lose to No. 15 Texas A&M in the season finale and then for the Aggies to lose the SEC championship. If the SEC does take four teams in this case, which seems highly likely, the Volunteers would be the fourth in the line.